Prediction: Autonomous cars will finally kill the manual transmission, shortly before they kill driving entirely.

"TheOnelectronic" (theoneelectronic) 04/03/2016 at 13:50 • Filed to: None

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Discuss.

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > TheOnelectronic 04/03/2016 at 13:59

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You forget to mention Tesla or rich people crashing exotic cars.

2/10

slipperysallylikespenguins > TheOnelectronic 04/03/2016 at 14:01

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Only in developed countries, you just have to migrate when it happens.

ADabOfOppo; Gone Plaid (Instructables Can Be Confusable) > TheOnelectronic 04/03/2016 at 14:03

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They can try and take my clutch pedal, but they will have to pry my gear shifter from my cold dead hands.

LongbowMkII > slipperysallylikespenguins 04/03/2016 at 14:22

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Somalia FTW.

slipperysallylikespenguins > LongbowMkII 04/03/2016 at 14:45

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That Bastard Kurtis - An Attempt to Standardize My Username Across Platforms > TheOnelectronic 04/03/2016 at 15:03

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Disagree, mostly because the folks driving manual transmissions are the ones least likely to want an autonomous car.

jariten1781 > TheOnelectronic 04/03/2016 at 15:05

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Nah, but implementing ‘real world’ emission standards will do it.

Twingo Tamer - About to descend into project car hell. > TheOnelectronic 04/03/2016 at 15:14

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Maybe both will die off but it’ll be a long while yet, as in a couple generations.

Nymphicus Hollandicus > TheOnelectronic 04/03/2016 at 15:37

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I don’t see how that could happen. Do you have any reasoning for this?

Nymphicus Hollandicus > That Bastard Kurtis - An Attempt to Standardize My Username Across Platforms 04/03/2016 at 15:38

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My thoughts exactly.

TheOnelectronic > Nymphicus Hollandicus 04/03/2016 at 17:16

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Well, it would be prohibitively complicated for a car to be able to operate a manual transmission on its own. Far simpler to just put in an automatic. As the feature becomes more prevalent and cheaper (think GPS navigation) fewer people will want to forego it just to have a manual, making it less cost effective for the manufacturer to offer a manual.

TheOnelectronic > jariten1781 04/03/2016 at 17:17

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How so?

TheOnelectronic > That Bastard Kurtis - An Attempt to Standardize My Username Across Platforms 04/03/2016 at 17:18

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You’re assuming it will remain voluntary.

My bird IS the word > TheOnelectronic 04/03/2016 at 18:27

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Autonomous cars require technology that hasn’t been invented yet, and will effectively eliminate self driven cars, and motorcycles. Automobile companies are just jumping on a “plausible” technology to advertise that they are modern and pioneering. I’m not saying that cars can’t drive themselves, but to drive themselves in every situation isn’t currently possible.

-end rant

Nymphicus Hollandicus > TheOnelectronic 04/03/2016 at 19:11

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I don’t think anyone would try to do an autonomous manual transmission car, especially since dual-clutch systems exist. You are right, but I’m not sure how autonomous cars would kill the manual, especially since those who would still want a manual would want a car that they can drive.

Nymphicus Hollandicus > My bird IS the word 04/03/2016 at 19:14

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Hm... Never thought about your reasoning about the car companies. That’s a good thought!

That Bastard Kurtis - An Attempt to Standardize My Username Across Platforms > TheOnelectronic 04/03/2016 at 19:47

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I don’t think we’ll see mandatory autonomous vehicles in my or even my 3 month old son’s lifetime, though I could see no more stick shifts in his lifetime. Honestly I don’t think it’ll ever happen unless your standard passenger car also becomes an actual spaceship where operating it is simply too complicated for a human, at which point we’ll all get fucked by Skynet anyway.

TheOnelectronic > Nymphicus Hollandicus 04/03/2016 at 21:59

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But the rub is in cars like the Model S. Yes, you can drive it yourself, but wouldn’t it be a really cool thing if you could send it off to park? Or if your friends drove you somewhere but you need to go, you can just summon your car from home?

(Obviously the actual Model S isn’t quite relevant since it was never going to have a manual, but you get the idea.)

TheOnelectronic > My bird IS the word 04/03/2016 at 22:00

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What about the Google prototypes running around would you say is not autonomous? I also don’t see your distinction between “self-driving” and “autonomous”

My bird IS the word > TheOnelectronic 04/03/2016 at 23:13

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Not trying to make a distinction, sorry if that was poorly worded. The Google cars work sure, but they cannot operate without people due to things like traffic cops. No technology exists to overcome the obstacle of infinite variations in hand signals. Unlike signs, they are much harder to regulate

TheOnelectronic > My bird IS the word 04/03/2016 at 23:23

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To be fair, half the time I have no fucking clue what traffic hand signals mean.

jariten1781 > TheOnelectronic 04/04/2016 at 06:39

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By allowing the driver to control the connection from the engine to the transmission you lose a ton of control of emissions. A driver in a manual can tool around at 58 mph in second gear if they so choose spewing out way above the EPA tests today. That, granted, is extreme and wouldn’t likely be reflected in real world results, but fundamentally there is some combination of gear selection, fuel, and spark advance that will result in minimal emissions for a given speed and throttle demand which all can be controlled by integrated computers in a modern automatic car. You go to an unconstrained variable by allowing the driver to control the gear (and how much power is transferred if they’re slipping the clutch). Manual drivers will, 100% of the time, emit more than a well optimized integrated computer controlled whole car system...period.

If you’ve ever driven a manual with an eco-shift light you get the idea. Example, in the Fiesta ST at 28 mph with <50% throttle demand the eco shift light expects you to be in fifth gear. There are literally no experienced manual drivers that would do that, it’s the definition of bogging, the car doesn’t respond well, and if you have an immediate demand for more throttle it’ll require downshifting or putting you in a high gear/low rpm/high throttle opening condition (which is horribly stressing). People with manuals do not and never will drive that way and that will show in the real world results no matter how they’re implemented. That includes paddle shifters to a lesser degree.

So, assuming that green parties around the world continue to wield influence and the EPA in the US continues to expand its authority via regulation and executive decisions (without congress stepping in and suing) the manual transmission will be regulated out of existence for the ‘sake of the environment’. Literally the only way to maintain them would be to develop a car that emits below the emissions bin requirements in all conditions. That would be a horribly neutered vehicle which nobody would purchase.

For autos with manual gear selection (DCTs or traditional, paddles or other) there is a path to keep them available for a period of time. Essentially it’d run on an emissions clock, as you drive, when the car’s condition tells the computers that it’s emitting less than the emissions requirement, it’ll bank ‘emissions credits’ (if you will). Based on how many ‘emissions credits’ are stored it’ll allow you to switch into ‘manual’ mode and do whatever you please until it has detected you’ve reached your emissions caps and the computer takes back over gear selection (and potentially restricts throttle transitions and max open as well as futzing around with the fuel/spark tables) to rebuild the emissions credits. There would likely be a ‘track mode’ where the emissions banking is ignored. That’d only last until the next equivalent of the current VW scandal (and there will be another one, there always is) when the lawmakers find out that, *shockingly*, the folks with those vehicles are driving around in track mode all the time.

The only way I see manual cars surviving another 40ish years would be if they’re explicitly grandfathered out of ‘real world’ emissions testing as convertibles are out of roof crush testing. I don’t see that as likely since convertibles are something that everyone ‘gets’ but manuals are something that most folks in the US (including lawmakers) do not understand and view as an anachronism. In some other 1st world countries it’d be more likely to see a grandfathering system due to take rates today, but I still would not expect it come to fruition due to the fact that, via multi-party systems, their green parties wield real power and can make/break coalitions.

jariten1781 > TheOnelectronic 04/04/2016 at 06:55

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Heh, but that fundamentally is the issue. You can learn via context. New hand signal you've never seen you'll watch other cars crossing at the intersection to see how they respond, you'll see the body language of the signaler, you'll have the ability to roll the window down and listen to audible commands or even ask questions, and you'll do it all instantly without even thinking to successfully navigate the obstacle. Plus, you'll bank that knowledge so that if you run into a whole bunch of intersections in a row with the same controls you will be able to respond better each time. Computers just plain cannot learn like that, it is a fundamental difference that we have not (and may not even be able to) crack.